Health & Lifestyle

So much for Juno! Covid cases are still falling despite gloomy warnings that January wave would be biggest EVER because of pesky new variant

  • Just one in 43 people across England were infected at any one time last week
  • Health chiefs warned Covid could still spark fresh chaos in the weeks ahead 

Warnings of carnage triggered by a pesky new Covid variant appear to have been over-hyped.

New surveillance figures show infection rates have halved since peaking ahead of Christmas.

Just one in 43 people across England were estimated to be carrying the virus at any point last week.

At the time, experts — and even one Government adviser — stoked fears that Juno could send cases spiralling to an all-time high. 

Despite the downturn, health chiefs have warned that Covid could still spark fresh chaos in the weeks ahead. 

UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) statistics also suggest flu is on the rise, which means the ailing NHS faces a double whammy during its busiest period of year.

Professor Steven Riley, director general for data and surveillance at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said the decline was ‘welcome’.

However, he added: ‘It is important to recognise that this doesn’t mean that the risk of becoming ill with Covid has gone away. 

‘In previous years, we have sometimes seen a decline in early January followed by an increase over the next few weeks.

‘So it remains important that we continue to do what we can to reduce transmission.’

What do we know about Juno?

Juno was first spotted by the UKHSA as part of routine horizon scanning – the process of monitoring emerging infections with the potential to affect the UK.

The variant, scientifically known as JN.1, was flagged because it contained a L455S mutation in the spike protein.

This tweak is known to help the virus dodge immune protection built up from previous infection and vaccination.

It was also taking off internationally as well as in the UK, the UKHSA noted.

This led the agency to designate the strain an official variant, labelling it V-23DEC-01 – a process that means it is formally being tracked.

As of December 30, Juno was behind 64.5 per cent of the UK’s Covid cases. 

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The UKHSA and Office for National Statistics (ONS) monitor Covid prevalence rates by testing a representative sample of around 30,000 every week.

Latest results show 2.3 per cent of people across England were infected on January 10, down from 2.8 per cent one week earlier.

Rates shot up to 4.5 per cent just before Christmas.

Covid was most rife in the South West, where 3 per cent of people were infected, it was estimated.

Virus levels declined among all age groups but remained highest among 35 to 44-year-olds.

The downturn follows the emergence of Omicron sub-variant Juno, scientifically known as JN.1, which now makes up two-thirds of all cases.

It first started spreading in the UK in October and was spotted by routine testing.

The variant was flagged because it contained a rogue mutation in the spike protein known to help the virus dodge the body’s internal defences. 

Health experts say this makes it easier for the virus to infect the nose and throat compared to other circulating variants, which the immune system finds easier to fight off due to vaccination and previous infection.  

There is no evidence to suggest that Juno, as it has since been nicknamed, is more dangerous than previous strains.

Separate Covid hospitalisation data, published by NHS England today, shows 3,949 patients were infected with the virus each day, on average, in the week to January 14.

The figure is down 7 per cent in a week and includes all patients who test positive for the virus, rather than just those admitted because they are unwell with Covid.

Meanwhile, 1,400 beds were occupied by flu patients daily last week, on average — down by 8.5 per cent. Yet separate statistics suggest rates are increasing again.

Levels are well below this time last year, when around 5,000 people were in hospital with the virus and the UK was in the middle of its worst flu season for a decade. 

Cases of norovirus appear to be on the up, too.

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, national medical director of NHS England, said the figures show the NHS is still facing a ‘challenging winter’ due to winter viruses.

Rory Deighton, acute network director at the NHS Confederation, the membership organisation for the healthcare system, welcomed the drop in flu numbers but warned that it is ‘too early to say the NHS is over the hill’.

He said: ‘As well as the continued pressure of winter and the risk that the current cold snap could see a spike in demand, trusts also need to rebook the thousands of patients whose operations were cancelled due to industrial action.

‘Any further spike in demand or wave of industrial action could further throw this recovery further off course.’

Earlier this month, junior doctors staged a six-day strike, which ran from January 3 to 9 and was the longest strike in NHS history. 

Officially it saw 113,779 hospital appointments and operations cancelled.


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