Health & Lifestyle

What’s the risk of a mass shooting at your child’s school? Iowa State University develops formula that gives prediction for states

  • Researchers hope their new estimates can predict and help prevent shootings
  • There is low risk of a shooting nationwide but some states have a higher chance 
  • READ MORE: Study breaks down thousands of mass shootings by state 

Law enforcement officials and leaders may now be able to predict and prepare for mass shootings in places like schools and bars across the United States.

While the risk of a mass shooting is low nationwide, researchers estimate as many as 722 incidents could occur in one year, with some states, such as California, and locations, like an office building, more likely to experience one.

Calculating the number of mass shootings and its victims is difficult because there is no agreed-upon definition of a mass shooting event. 

However, researchers from Iowa State University analyzed mass shootings from two sources to determine the probability one would occur in certain states and locations.

In one model, the team looked at data from 1966 to 2020 cataloged in The Violence Project’s database, which defined a mass shooting as an incident with four or more victims, not including the shooter, killed by a firearm in a public place. 

The organization recorded 190 mass shootings committed by 194 people between 1966 and 2020, the time period it keeps data on. Since the 1970s, the number of mass shootings, according to its definition, has increased by one every 10 years. 

Researchers used this data, along with available historical data of mass shootings, to estimate the risk of an incident across the country, in each state and at a specific location, such as an office building, school, house of worship, a private residence and a college or university.

While the risk of a mass shooting is low nationwide, some states and locations are more likely to experience one, according to the study by researchers from the University of Iowa

While the risk of a mass shooting is low nationwide, some states and locations are more likely to experience one, according to the study by researchers from the University of Iowa

Researchers from Iowa State University analyzed mass shootings from 1966 to 2020 from The Violence Project's database

Researchers from Iowa State University analyzed mass shootings from 1966 to 2020 from The Violence Project’s database

The study estimated an average number of six mass shootings would occur in a year across the US, with a 95 percent chance that between two and 12 would occur. 

In a school, the chances of a mass shooting are approximately 0.08 percent.

The researchers also applied their method to a second dataset from The Gun Archive, which uses the expanded definition of a mass shooting as four or more people shot, injured or killed in a public or private location.  

Based on this definition, the projected number of mass shootings was 639, with a 95 percent chance that between 567 and 722 events would occur. 

The Gun Violence Archive has recorded 537 mass shootings, according to its definition, so far in 2023. 

When researchers analyzed data on a state level based on The Violence Project’s definition, those with the largest populations, California, Texas, Florida, New York and Pennsylvania, were all at the greatest risk of experiencing a mass shootings. 

Researchers then estimated the risk in various locations in the state with the most mass shootings, California, and a state that has never experienced a mass shooting, Iowa. 

The annual probability of a mass shooting in Iowa is approximately 0.06 percent. In California, it is 0.5 percent, according to one of the models used by researchers based on a state’s population.

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The location with the highest probability of experiencing a mass shooting in the US is a workplace, at a 0.3 percent chance. It is also the most likely location in California and Iowa, with an approximate 0.2 percent and 0.02 percent probability, respectively.

While the probability of a mass shooting in a kindergarten through 12th grade school nationwide is approximately 0.08 percent, it is less in California, at 0.05 percent, and near zero in Iowa. 

‘These probabilities suggest that the risk of a mass shooting at a specific location such as a high school is extremely low, regardless of the state’, researchers said. 

‘The media attention and tragic nature that characterize a school shooting has perhaps led the American public to overestimate the risk’.

The place least likely to experience a mass shooting in the US is a government building or place of civic importance, at 0.03 percent. It is also the least likely location in both California and Iowa, at approximately 0.03 percent and near-zero percent, respectively.

Researchers hope that by providing a more realistic risk assessment of the chances of a mass shooting at a specific location it will help guide how decisionmakers mitigate risk and plan for an incident. 

‘An organization does not know if one of its locations will be one of the unlucky locations where a gunman opens fire. 

‘Estimating the likelihood of a mass shooting at a location can help decision makers understand the risk of a mass shooting,’ researchers wrote.

‘A statistical analysis of the chances of a mass shooting provides a more realistic risk assessment than what one might conclude based on the attention and media that mass shootings generate. 

Decision makers can use this knowledge to make more informed decisions and make trade-offs between mitigating the risk of a mass shooting at their location and other priorities, including other low-probability, high-consequence events.’


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