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Premier League title race: Who has the hardest run-in?

A stagnant 2022/23 on the red side of the Mersey meant an alternate challenger for Manchester City’s throne manifested but Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool are right back in title contention this term.

Mikel Arteta’s project inspired a tilt at the summit for much of last term but a stuttering epilogue allowed Pep Guardiola’s eventual treble-winners to stroll to a third-straight league title.

Arsenal are poised to be in the mix once again in 2023/24 despite their woes over Christmas, although Liverpool have re-emerged as City’s fiercest contender. These two played out memorable title duels in 2018/19 and 2021/22, so it’d be silly to rule out another run-in of drama this time around.

Alongside Arsenal, outsiders Aston Villa and Tottenham have thrown themselves into the mix.

Here’s how 90min rates the respective run-ins of the Premier League‘s top five on a 1-10 difficulty scale (1 being a walk in the park and 10 being a gauntlet).

TOPSHOT-FBL-ENG-PR-LIVERPOOL-NEWCASTLETOPSHOT-FBL-ENG-PR-LIVERPOOL-NEWCASTLE

Mohamed Salah will be key to Liverpool’s title charge / PETER POWELL/GettyImages

Date

Matchday

Fixture

16/03/24

29

Everton vs Liverpool

30/03/24

30

Liverpool vs Brighton

03/04/24

31

Liverpool vs Sheffield Utd

06/04/24

32

Man Utd vs Liverpool

13/04/24

33

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

20/04/24

34

Fulham vs Liverpool

27/04/24

35

West Ham vs Liverpool

04/05/24

36

Liverpool vs Tottenham

11/05/24

37

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

19/05/24

38

Liverpool vs Wolves

Having exceeded expectations drastically during the first half of the season, Liverpool have put themselves in a position where they can claim their second Premier League title.

Whether they can prevent City lifting an unprecedented fourth-straight title will depend on the availability of four players; Alisson, Virgil van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah. Liverpool’s core must be available, especially when the fixture list condenses again once the Europa League knockouts roll around.

Fortunately, their final ten league games aren’t too tough. Klopp’s men take on bitter rivals Everton and Manchester United away from home, but they’re nonetheless games champions should win. Tottenham’s visit on Matchday 36 followed by a trip to Villa Park the following week is a tough two-game stretch in crunch time that could make or break their campaign during the last stretch.

Liverpool run-in difficulty rating: 6/10

Josep 'Pep' Guardiola, Kevin De BruyneJosep 'Pep' Guardiola, Kevin De Bruyne

Ominous / James Gill – Danehouse/GettyImages

Date

Matchday

Fixture

16/03/24

29

Brighton vs Man City

30/03/24

30

Man City vs Arsenal

03/04/24

31

Man City vs Aston Villa

06/04/24

32

Crystal Palace vs Man City

13/04/24

33

Man City vs Luton Town

20/04/24

34

Tottenham vs Man City

27/04/24

35

Nottingham Forest vs Man City

04/05/24

36

Man City vs Wolves

11/05/24

37

Fulham vs Man City

19/05/24

38

Man City vs West Ham

The signs are ominous for the rest of the division. Man City endured their annual blip before Christmas but are right on Liverpool’s tail with Kevin De Bruyne already back fit and firing.

Guardiola’s side have the ability to put together imperious winning runs to guide them to glory, just as they did last season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if something similar plays out in 2023/24.

The Cityzens’ run-in is hardly the most imposing. The majority of their tough outs will be played at the Etihad, with a trip to bogey team Tottenham on Matchday 34 being their greatest cause for concern. They also visit Selhurst Park at the start of April to face Crystal Palace, who have proved annoying opposition for City in the past.

Man City run-in difficulty rating: 5/10

Douglas LuizDouglas Luiz

Aston Villa have enjoyed a meteoric rise under Unai Emery / Richard Heathcote/GettyImages

Date

Matchday

Fixture

16/03/24

29

West Ham vs Aston Villa

30/03/24

30

Aston Villa vs Wolves

03/04/24

31

Man City vs Aston Villa

06/04/24

32

Aston Villa vs Brentford

13/04/24

33

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

20/04/24

34

Aston Villa vs Bournemouth

27/04/24

35

Aston Villa vs Chelsea

04/05/24

36

Brighton vs Aston Villa

11/05/24

37

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

19/05/24

38

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa

Aston Villa’s home form is set to guide them into the Champions League but they must improve on the road if they’re to emerge as a title contender.

Unai Emery’s side have a fairly mixed bag down the stretch. Crucially, they take on Wolves in a West Midlands derby, Chelsea and Liverpool all at Villa Park, but they’ll be away from home against Man City and Arsenal.

While Villa’s home record is the best in the Premier League at the time of writing, their away record is only good enough for seventh-best. They’ll likely need to snatch points at both the Etihad and Emirates if they’re to leave themselves in title contention up until May.

Aston Villa run-in difficulty rating: 7/10

Mikel ArtetaMikel Arteta

Mikel Arteta’s Gunners need to start firing in the final third / Alex Pantling/GettyImages

Date

Matchday

Fixture

16/03/24

29

Arsenal vs Chelsea

30/03/24

30

Man City vs Arsenal

02/04/24

31

Arsenal vs Luton Town

06/04/24

32

Brighton vs Arsenal

13/04/24

33

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

20/04/24

34

Wolves vs Arsenal

27/04/24

35

Tottenham vs Arsenal

04/05/24

36

Arsenal vs Bournemouth

11/05/24

37

Man Utd vs Arsenal

19/05/24

38

Arsenal vs Everton

Arsenal may have endured a woeful blip over the festive period but they certainly shouldn’t be ruled out of title contention. Mikel Arteta will welcome the likes of Thomas Partey and Jurrien Timber back to action before the run-in and an avoidance of key injuries will allow the Gunners to mount a title bid.

However, it remains to be seen whether they’ve got the goalkeeper or firepower to usurp either Liverpool or City.

Their run-in isn’t exactly simple, either. Arsenal take on two fallen giants in Chelsea and Man Utd, who’ll be keen on scuppering any Gunners charge, and also face City and Tottenham away from home. April contests away at Brighton and Wolves with a home game against Villa sandwiched in between certainly add to Arsenal’s tricky conclusion to 2023/24.

Arsenal run-in difficulty rating: 8/10

James Maddison, Richarlison, Cristian RomeroJames Maddison, Richarlison, Cristian Romero

Tottenham have kept themselves in contention despite their injury woes / Alex Pantling/GettyImages

Date

Matchday

Fixture

16/03/24

29

Fulham vs Tottenham

30/03/24

30

Tottenham vs Luton Town

02/04/24

31

West Ham vs Tottenham

06/04/24

32

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest

13/04/24

33

Newcastle vs Tottenham

20/04/24

34

Tottenham vs Man City

27/04/24

35

Tottenham vs Arsenal

04/05/24

36

Liverpool vs Tottenham

11/05/24

37

Tottenham vs Burnley

19/05/24

38

Sheffield United vs Tottenham

Tottenham have had to overcome a ton of adversity to get themselves into a strong position at the start of 2024, although not so many regard Ange Postecoglou’s side as genuine title contenders.

Spurs, if their injury bug departs before March, should have their strongest XI which started the campaign superbly available for the run-in. However, they’ve got a nightmarish fixture list to end the season.

Their epilogue is defined by a horrible four-game stretch in April and May: Newcastle (A), Man City (H), Arsenal (H) and Liverpool (A). Their rather tame schedule in the lead-up to that run could leave Ange’s men in with a shout of title glory and they’ll certainly deserve it if they emerge for their Matchday 37 game against Burnley unscathed.

For now, Tottenham remain outsiders for the title.

Tottenham run-in difficulty rating: 9/10

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