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How Wales can qualify for Euro 2024

Wales’ first-ever victory over Croatia breathed fresh life into their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign.

Harry Wilson channelled his inner Gareth Bale on Sunday night as his brace lifted Wales to a 2-1 victory in Cardiff. Wilson’s magic thrust Rob Page’s side into a 2-0 lead on the hour, but a nervy finish ensued after Mario Pasalic halved the deficit with 15 minutes remaining.

While Croatia are an ageing outfit beyond their apex, Sunday’s triumph was hugely significant for the Welsh as they attempt to qualify for back-to-back major tournaments.

Here’s how Wales can book their place at Euro 2024 during the November international break.

Kieffer MooreKieffer Moore

Wales have enjoyed an up-and-down qualifying campaign thus far / Michael Steele/GettyImages

Welsh supporters have had quite the ride. Expectations were tempered following the retirement of Bale at the start of 2023 and many wrote Page’s men off after a nightmare June.

Wales were beaten at home by Armenia 4-2 on Matchday 3 and brushed aside by Turkey a few days later. Their poor summer undermined the bright start they’d made in Group D as they drew away in Croatia on Matchday 1 and beat Latvia 1-0 in Cardiff.

A win in Latvia in September returned Wales to winning ways before Sunday night’s mammoth victory greatly enhanced their chances of qualifying for Euro 2024 at Croatia’s expense. The two nations are now locked on ten points apiece, but Wales do have a tricky end to their qualifying campaign.

Euro 2024 qualifying – Group D

Position

Nation

Played

Won

Drawn

Lost

Goal difference

Points

1.

Turkey

7

5

1

1

7

16

2.

Wales

6

3

1

2

0

10

3.

Croatia

6

3

1

2

6

10

4.

Armenia

6

2

1

3

-1

7

5.

Latvia

7

1

0

6

-12

3

Wales’ results in Euro 2024 qualifying Group D

Date / Kick-off time (BST)

Result

25/03/23 / 19:45

Croatia 1-1 Wales

28/03/23 / 19:45

Wales 1-0 Latvia

16/06/23 / 19:45

Wales 2-4 Armenia

19/06/23 / 19:45

Turkey 2-0 Wales

11/09/23 / 19:45

Latvia 0-2 Wales

15/10/23 / 19:45

Wales 2-1 Croatia

While Wales now sit ahead of Croatia in second spot thanks to their superior head-to-head record, Page’s side still have plenty of work to do if they’re to fight off the 2022 World Cup semi-finalists.

The Dragons have two tough qualifiers next month and it’s imperative they win their first away in Armenia. Armenia enjoyed a strong start to qualifying but have picked up just a point from their last three games. Victory over Wales will thrust them right into contention, but anything but a win and they’ll be out of the picture.

Thus, Wales are going to have to match Croatia’s points total in their last two games. Luka Modric’s outfit have lost back-to-back matches in Group D, but they’ll be expected to claim six points from their last two. Croatia host Armenia and visit bottom dwellers Latvia.

As a result, Wales will probably have to beat Turkey in Cardiff on the final matchday. Turkey have already booked their place in Germany next summer and the Dragons will be hoping to face an undercooked iteration of the table-toppers to aid their chances of progressing.

Wales’ remaining fixtures in Euro 2024 qualifying Group D

Date / Kick-off time (BST)

Fixture

18/11/23 / 14:00

Armenia vs Wales

21/11/23 / 19:45

Wales vs Turkey

While England are hoping to embark on a qualifying campaign before hosting Euro 2028, Germany were grateful for their automatic qualification. Die Mannschaft’s dire 2023 under Hansi Flick suggests they would have struggled in qualifying.

Nevertheless, the Germans are there and have so far been joined by six nations. Belgium, France and Portugal became the first teams to qualify in mid-October, with Scotland, Spain and Turkey also joining them.

England are poised to book their place at next summer’s tournament, with Hungary also primed.

READ MORE ON EURO 2024 QUALIFICATION – TABLES, TOP SCORERS & QUALIFIED TEAMS

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