Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Achievement in Sound
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 28, 2023): Removing “Dune 2” from the landscape allows “Oppenheimer” to plead its case among the tech branch members, particulary the sound design by Richard King, Michael W. Mitchell, Kevin O’Connell and Gary A. Rizzo.
Barring unforeseen shortcomings (which you can never count out in an Oscar season), “Oppenheimer” is currently projected to land in the realm of 12 Oscar noms — picture, director, actor (Cillian Murphy), supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr.), supporting actress (Emily Blunt), adapted screenplay, production design, cinematography, costume design, film editing, sound and original score. With 12, Nolan’s atomic bomb origin tale would be on par with others such as “Ben Hur” (1959), “Dances with Wolves” (1990) and “Schindler’s List” (1993).
Moreover, Nolan’s movies have done very well in the sound categories. “Inception” (2010) and “Dunkirk” (2017) both took home the two sound categories when it was divided into mixing and editing in their respective years, while “The Dark Knight” (2008) took home the mixing prize (along with Heath Ledger in supporting actor). “Interstellar” (2014) also managed a nom for sound (despite the criticisms).
This race seems like one of the safe bets for “Oppenheimer” going into the phase one period.
However, musically driven movies do well with this branch and there are plenty this year such as Warner Bros’ “The Color Purple” and Netflix’s “Maestro.”
Action flicks also do well here which is why we’re not counting out the animated “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” and the sci-fi epic “The Creator.”
In addition, vehicles traveling super fast are also favorites which helps Neon’s “Ferrari” and 20th Century Studios’ “The Bikeriders” seeking attention.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Ferrari” (Neon)
- “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- “The Killer” (Netflix)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- “The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
- “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
- “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “32 Sounds” (Abramorama)
Also In Contention
- “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
- “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “American Symphony” (Netflix)
- “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Nina Hartstone, Eilam Hoffman (Supervising Sound Editing & Design), Adam Scrivener, Jasper Thorn (Re-Recording Mixers), Nina Rice (Production Sound Mixer)
- “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — Ken Galvin, Roer Flanagan, Dominic Lawrence
- “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
2022 category winner: “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) — Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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