Health & Lifestyle

Deaths from four types of killer viruses lurking in animals will soar 12-fold due to climate change, scientists claim

Four diseases transmitted from animals to humans will kill 12 times as many people in 2050 than they did in 2020, researchers fear.

Experts from US biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks have called for ‘urgent action’ to address the risk to global public health.

Human epidemics caused by zoonotic diseases — also known as spillovers — could be more frequent in the future due to climate change and deforestation, they warned. 

Both factors mean humans coming into contact with animals more frequently.

The team’s analysis looked at historic trends for four particular viral pathogens.

Four diseases transmitted from animals to humans will kill 12 times as many people in 2050 than they did in 2020, researchers fear

Four diseases transmitted from animals to humans will kill 12 times as many people in 2050 than they did in 2020, researchers fear

These were filoviruses, which include Ebola and Marburg, SARS (Covid’s cousin), Nipah, and machupo (which causes Bolivian haemorrhagic fever).

The study did not include Covid, which caused the global pandemic in 2020 and is likely to have originated in bats.

It looked at more than 3,000 outbreaks between 1963-2019, identifying 75 spillover events in 24 countries.

The database covered epidemics reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), and outbreaks occurring since 1963 that killed 50 or more people.

The events caused 17,232 deaths, with 15,771 caused by filoviruses and occurring mostly in Africa.

Researchers said epidemics have been increasing by almost 5 per cent every year.

‘If these annual rates of increase continue, we would expect the analysed pathogens to cause four times the number of spillover events and 12 times the number of deaths in 2050 than in 2020,’ they added.

Researchers also suggested the figures are likely to be an underestimate due to the strict inclusion criteria for the pathogens in the analysis.

They said the evaluation of evidence suggests recent epidemics sparked by zoonotic spillovers ‘are not an aberration or random cluster’ but follow ‘a multi-decade trend in which spillover-driven epidemics have become both larger and more frequent’.

The team added that ‘urgent action is needed to address a large and growing risk to global health’ based on historical trends.

The findings were published in the journal BMJ Global Health.

REVEALED: THE FOUR PATHOGENS THAT ARE INCREASING AT AN ‘EXPONENTIAL RATE’

FILOVIRUSES

Filoviruses are a family that includes Ebola and Marburg.

Ebola, named after a river in the Democratic Republic of Congo — where the viral haemorrhagic fever was discovered, kills up to half of everyone who gets infected. 

The virus is mainly transmitted through exposure to bodily fluids, with the main symptoms being fever, vomiting, bleeding and diarrhoea.

It naturally resides in fruit bats, monkeys and porcupines living in the rainforest, and can also be transmitted through eating uncooked ‘bushmeat’.

Ebola’s cousin, Marburg, has a death rate of up to 90 per cent, making it one of the deadliest pathogens known to man. 

It spreads in a similar fashion and can trigger the same symptoms. 

SARS CORONAVIRUS 1   

SARS is the cousin of Covid, causing similar flu-like symptoms.

It infected 8,000 people and killed nearly 800 in an outbreak in Asia in 2003.

SARS is, however, deadlier than Covid.

Data suggests it kills around one in 10 people, compared to fewer than one in 100 from Covid.

The airborne virus can spread through small droplets of saliva, in a similar way to colds and influenza.

NIPAH VIRUS

Nipah is a type of henipavirus, which are naturally held in fruit bats.

The virus is usually spread to humans through direct contact with infected animals, usually pigs and bats.

But human-to-human transmission can occur.

Outbreaks occur almost annually in parts of Asia, primarily Bangladesh and India, the US CDC says.

Symptoms, such as a fever, headache and drowsiness, may appear between five and 14 days after becoming infected, and can last up to two weeks.

Eventually, patients can progress into a coma or suffer breathing problems.

The virus is thought to be fatal in up to 75 per cent of cases.

No vaccine or cure exists, but patients may receive supportive treatment to relieve symptoms.

MACHUPO VIRUS

Machupo virus causes a disease called Bolivian haemorrhagic fever.

The virus is carried by rats found in eastern Bolivia, northern Paraguay and western parts of Brazil. 

It can also be carried by ticks and mosquitos, data suggests. 

Symptoms are similar to Ebola. Death can occur within hours, experts say. 


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