NHS waiting list FINALLY shrinks but Rishi Sunak warns massive backlog of 7.7million ops will still grow this winter amid looming threat of strikes

The NHS waiting list has dropped for the first time in a year but walkouts by junior doctors could halt progress to drive it down further, the Prime Minister has warned.

Health service data shows 7.7million appointments and operations in England were yet to be carried out as of October — down 65,000 on last month.

Rishi Sunak, who made cutting waiting lists one of his 2023 priorities, today said the NHS is ‘making good progress tackling the backlog’.

However, the PM warned that nine days of strikes by junior doctors over Christmas and the New Year will make it ‘hard’ to keep reducing the list. He urged the medics, who earn up to £60,000, to ‘do the right thing’ and call of their industrial action.

It comes as separate figures show flu and the winter vomiting bug norovirus are piling further pressure on hospitals, with the number of patients taking up NHS beds jumping by up to two-third in just one week. 

NHS England data shows that the waiting list fell 0.8 per cent in October.

However, the 7.71million toll marks one of the highest figures logged since NHS records began in August 2007 and a rise of 490,000 on October 2022.

For comparison, around 4.4million were stuck in the system when the pandemic reached the UK. 

Some 377,618 patients were forced to wait at least one year, which is down slightly on the 391,122 one month earlier. 

The NHS has been told to eliminate all waits of more than a year by March 2025.

Figures also show 190 patients had been queuing for more than two years by September, down from 227 one month earlier.

The NHS was told to eliminate two-year waits by July 2022, apart from for patients who chose to wait longer, did not want to travel to be seen faster, or for very complex cases requiring specialist treatment.

Questioned on whether he had failed to on the Government’s pledge to cut NHS waiting lists by the end of the year, Mr Sunak said the NHS has ‘made progress’ by bringing down the backlog for the longest waiters.

However, he said that industrial action by NHS staff ‘has made that difficult’. 

While consultants are now considering the Government’s pay rise of up to £20,000 for this financial year, junior doctors, who earn up to £60,000, have rejected the Government’s latest offer and are set to stage nine days of walk-outs over Christmas and the New Year.

Thousands of junior doctors will abandon posts for three days before Xmas, starting at 7am on December 20. Another six days of action — the longest in the health service’s 75-year history — are pencilled in from 7am on January 2. 

Junior doctors have called the Government’s three per cent rise on top of the average 8.8 per cent increase they already pocketed in the summer ‘completely insufficient’.  

Mr Sunak said: ‘[It’s] Disappointing that the junior doctors are still threatening industrial action when everyone else has settled with the Government.

‘It’s hard to get the backlogs down when people are on strike.

‘I think what we will see is that over the last few weeks that we haven’t had industrial action, people are starting to see progress in bringing down the waiting list.’

He added: ‘We do need people to be at work so I urge the junior doctors to consider the offer the Government has put forward – everyone else has settled and it’s really on them to do the right thing.’ 

Separate weekly NHS data shows that winter viruses are hospitalising an increasing number of Brits.

Some 402 people were in hospital with flu every day last week, on average, up by 72 per cent in just one week. 

With the exception of last year, flu admissions are at their highest level since 2015. 

Meanwhile, 506 patients had norovirus — up by 25 per cent compared to seven days earlier. On top of this, norovirus cases led to 114 beds being closed each day, on average, in a bid to stop the highly contagious bug, which causes vomiting and diarrhoea, from spreading to other patients. 

Rising rates of seasonal bugs among the population is having a knock-on effect on NHS capacity, with 49,020 staff absences per day, on average, last week. 

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, medical director of NHS England, said medics have ‘pulled out all the stops’ and that’s ‘reflected in today’s figures’.

‘While the sheer amount of care being delivered for patients by our staff is incredible, we know we still face a challenging winter on a number of fronts,’ he said.

This includes the spike in patients with winter bugs, difficulties discharged patients who are fit to leave hospital and industrial action, Professor Powis said.

Rory Deighton, acute network director at the NHS Confederation, the membership organisation for the healthcare system, said: ‘The rise in winter bugs such as flu and norovirus and staff absences is a concern and a sign that pressures are only going to ramp up as we get deeper into the cold season.

‘While the efforts trusts have put in to prepare for winter have borne fruit, including around 1,500 more beds than last year, services can only cope with so much before patient safety could be put at risk.

‘Bed occupancy is still high despite more beds and delayed discharges remain a major challenge.’

Separate NHS data on ambulance figures for November today revealed response times improved slightly.

Heart attack and stroke patients, known as category two callers, had to wait an average of 38 minutes and 30 seconds for paramedics to arrive on the scene.

This is three minutes faster than October but still more than twice as long as the 18 minute target. 

The average category one response time — calls from people with life-threatening illnesses or injuries — was 8 minutes and 32 seconds. This is eight seconds faster than the previous month. However, the target time is seven minutes.

Dr Sonya Babu-Narayan, associate medical director at the British Heart Foundation and a consultant cardiologist, said: ‘Too many people are still waiting far too long for ambulances and routine heart care, and these figures don’t include the impact of NHS winter pressures. 

‘Significant delays to heart care risk preventable heart failure or even premature death, which is why heart patients urgently need to hear that their time-critical care is a priority for politicians of all parties.’

Meanwhile, weekly NHS data shows that one in three patients arriving by ambulance at hospitals last week waited more than 30 minutes to be handed over to A&E.

There were 28,498 delays of half an hour or longer recorded across all hospital trusts in the week to December 10, equating to 34 per cent of all handovers.

The figure is up from 25 per cent in a week.

NHS rules set out that the process should be completed within 15 minutes and that none should last more than one hour. Long handover delays can see ambulances stuck in queues outside hospitals for hours, instead of responding to incoming calls.

Earlier, the Prime Minister said the Government will ‘keep a close eye’ on ambulance delays, when asked how bad they will get.

Mr Sunak said the NHS started planning for winter earlier than ever before and has been given an extra £1billion in funding to expand A&E departments, put more ambulances on the road and ensure patients are discharged from hospital on time. 

‘All of that is making a difference and we’ve seen considerable improvements since this time last year. But obviously we’ll keep a close eye on it and work closely with the NHS to deliver everyone the care that they need,’ he added.

A&E departments are also feeling the pressure, NHS data shows.

Nearly 43,000 emergency department attendees in November had to wait more than 12 hours before being admitted, transferred or discharged.

Just seven in 10 were seen within four hours — the health service’s target.

But these figures only look at trolley waits — the time between doctors deciding a patient needs to be admitted and them getting a bed.

Figures capturing exact arrival times at A&E paint a much bleaker picture, with up to one in 10 forced to wait at least 12 hours. 

Dr Tim Cooksley, former president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said: ‘The entirely predictable winter crisis is having a profound impact on patients and staff already and the continuing physical and psychological harm of long waits and corridor care will sadly increase.

‘The outlook is bleak, with the latest data showing the number of 12-hour delays in emergency departments are up by 5,000 compared to this time last year at 42,900.

‘This is of grave concern and is the element which requires the most urgent attention as it particularly impacts patients’ outcomes and experience.

‘Urgent and emergency care services are entering survival mode – if not in it already – hoping to sustain basic levels of care and reluctantly accepting that delivering high quality care for many patients will not be possible for at least several months.’

Meanwhile, NHS figures on cancer waiting times showed every single national target was missed again in October. 

Just 71.1 per cent of patients urgently referred for suspected cancer were diagnosed or had cancer ruled out within 28 days, up from 69.7 per cent the previous month. The target is 75 per cent.

Just 89.4 per cent waiting a month or less for their first cancer treatment to begin after a decision to proceed with surgery, chemotherapy or radiotherapy. The target is 96 per cent but this has never been met.

Fewer than two-thirds (63.1 per cent) of patients started their first cancer treatment within two months of an urgent referral. 

NHS guidelines state 85 per cent of cancer patients should be treated within this time-frame. But this target has never been met.

Professor Pat Price, a leading oncologist and co-founder of the #CatchUpWithCancer campaign, called the figures  desperately poor’. 

She said: ‘The grim reality is of deteriorating cancer treatment times following an urgent GP referral.’

Minesh Patel, head of policy at Macmillan Cancer Support, said: ‘Yet again, thousands of people in England are still facing agonising delays for diagnosis and treatment. 

‘Despite best efforts from NHS staff, the lack of support from the UK governments has left cancer services under immense strain and people living with cancer paying the price. Politicians, what are you waiting for? We need to see greater funding and support for the cancer workforce, both now and in the future.’