Supercomputer predicts 2023 Women’s World Cup knockout stage

Few editions of the Women’s World Cup have ever been as unpredictable as the vintage of 2023.

The reigning champions of Asia, South America and the Olympics all failed to make it past the group stage – and that doesn’t even include the second-best nation on the planet according to FIFA’s ranking system; Germany.

Football is an unpredictable sport at the best of times – any ball game naturally has plenty of luck baked into it but football compounds an unforeseeable bounce by forcing its players to use the blunt object that is a pair of feet.

However, Opta have tried to cut through the chaos with calculations. By using a combination of betting market odds and Opta’s personal in-house power rankings, the statistical giant has devised a probability of success for each nation left in the competition.

The United States and Sweden have met more often than any other pair in Women’s World Cup history, facing off six times in previous group stages. Sunday’s last-16 clash is the first knockout match between the duo and the tightest of any across the second round in 2023.

Despite collecting five points from their three group games – the nation’s worst-ever record at this stage of the competition – the US have been ranked as narrow favourites (58.2% chance of success) against a Sweden team that collected maximum points.

Theoretically, France’s clash with Morocco is the most one-sided tie in the round of 16. Herve Renard, formerly coach of Morocco men’s team at the 2018 World Cup, steered France past Brazil and Jamaica in the group stage but warned his side “not to take anything for granted” after a chaotic 6-3 win over Panama. Against a team ranked 72nd in the world, Renard will be on the lookout for any complacency.

In the battle between two underdogs, Colombia are thought to have a better chance of advancing to the quarter-finals than Jamaica. Spain are expected to keep a squad mutiny at bay long enough to dispatch Switzerland while the Netherlands are predicted to win their tie against South Africa four out of five times.

When the draw was first made, England may have expected to face one of Canada or Australia in the last 16. Instead, Sarina Wiegman’s side are up against a dangerous Nigeria outfit. The Lionesses are heavy favourites (Opta’s model gives them a 79.65% chance of success) but will be wary of a team that has talent at both ends of the pitch.

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Correct as of 4 August 2023

Wiegman’s England are not only favourites against Nigeria but, after a shock-riddled group stage, are Opta’s best bet for the tournament winners.

Before a ball was kicked in anger Down Under, Opta rated England’s chances of winning an inaugural Women’s World Cup at 16.87%. After putting eight goals past Costa Rica, Denmark and China, while conceding just one penalty, England’s probability for success has jumped to 26.50%. In more than a quarter of the outcomes that Opta’s model has foreseen, England end the tournament as champions.

While England’s hopes have risen, the USWNT have taken a significant hit. The number one ranked side according to FIFA were also pre-tournament favourites with Opta. Yet, three muddled displays against the Philippines, the Netherlands and Portugal – when the US avoided an ignominious group-stage exit by the width of one post – have seen their chances of victory tumble from 21.65% to 13.66%.

At least the US are still in the competition. Germany were ranked fourth-favourites by Opta yet failed to escape from a group made up of Colombia, Morocco and South Korea.

England’s aspirations have significantly improved thanks in part to Germany’s elimination. Colombia finished top of Group H, taking the spot that many had saved for Germany, setting up an unlikely knockout tie against Jamaica, a nation that advanced ahead of Brazil. England, should they find a way past Nigeria, will face the winner of Colombia and Jamaica in the quarter-finals.

The numbers are not as easily swayed by recency bias as the imperfect human observer. Japan are top scorers in the tournament and yet to concede a goal but Opta’s model only gives Futoshi Ikeda’s side a 6.36% chance of winning a second world title. Intriguingly, Spain – the team that Japan dismantled 4-0 in their final group game – have a better chance (9.23%) of lifting the trophy on 20 August.

Morocco may be the only country in the world with a two-tier league system in women’s football that is entirely professional but, according to the numbers, the Atlas Lionesses are the least likely side to win the World Cup left in the tournament.

However, given the jubilant scenes as players and coaching staff alike wept tears of joy when it became clear they had qualified for the knockout stages of their first Women’s World Cup, Morocco may be content with what they have achieved already.

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Former Italy international Arianna Criscione, Dulwich Hamlet’s Brittany Saylor and Football for Future founder Elliot Arthur-Worsop join Katie Cross to have football’s climate conversation about the Women’s World Cup and tournament football’s carbon footprint. Pledgeball’s Heather Ashworth also gives an update on the Pledgeball’s new Women’s World Cup initiative.

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