The key to success in the Premier League? Going down to ten men.
The top flight delivered a showcase of entertainment over the weekend as the goals flowed and the officials continued to intrude on proceedings by any means possible. After West Ham United successfully held off Chelsea despite Nayef Aguerd’s red card in Gameweek 2, Fulham and Liverpool both opted to go down a man to embolden their chances.
Virgil van Dijk and Calvin Bassey obviously didn’t get themselves sent off on purpose, but both sides were able to pull rabbits out of hats as Liverpool won at Newcastle United and Fulham snatched a late equaliser at Arsenal.
It was a bonkers weekend of Premier League action, with the results altering a particular supercomputer’s season projection.
|
Position |
Team |
Likelihood of predicted finish (%) |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Man City |
92.9 |
|
2. |
Liverpool |
44.3 |
|
3. |
Arsenal |
28.5 |
|
4. |
Man Utd |
18.6 |
|
5. |
Newcastle |
14.4 |
|
6. |
Tottenham |
13.0 |
|
7. |
Aston Villa |
12.3 |
|
8. |
Brighton |
12.0 |
|
9. |
West Ham |
12.5 |
|
10. |
Chelsea |
12.9 |
|
11. |
Brentford |
12.3 |
|
12. |
Crystal Palace |
16.6 |
|
13. |
Fulham |
16.6 |
|
14. |
Wolves |
16.9 |
|
15. |
Nottingham Forest |
15.9 |
|
16. |
Burnley |
14.5 |
|
17. |
Bournemouth |
15.4 |
|
18. |
Everton |
16.3 |
|
19. |
Luton |
19.9 |
|
20 |
Sheffield United |
24.5 |
*Data via Opta, correct as of 29 August 2023
Nothing’s changed at the top with Manchester City still expected to waltz to an unprecedented fourth-straight Premier League title. Their chances of lifting the trophy rose to 92.9% after Gameweek 3 as they beat Sheffield United 2-1 at Bramall Lane.
Arsenal are no longer Opta’s second favourites for City’s crown after they were held by ten-man Fulham on Saturday. The Gunners have picked up seven points from a possible nine, but something just isn’t quite right in north London. They’ve been usurped by Liverpool, who pulled off an astonishing victory at St James’ Park, with the Reds now boasting a 44.3% chance of finishing second.
Despite their staggering win on Tyneside, that figure does seem high given their obvious defensive frailties.
That’s the only change to the projected top five, though, with Tottenham Hotspur moving up a position and into sixth. Spurs have dazzled in their opening three games under Ange Postecoglou, and the computer is warming to the idea of the Lilywhites potentially being a top-five contender. Brighton, meanwhile, have dropped down a couple of spots following their defeat to West Ham on Saturday.
The Seagulls had a 14.5% chance of finishing sixth after Gameweek 2, but that has subsequently tumbled to 10.6%. Aston Villa are now backed to have a slightly better Premier League campaign than Roberto De Zerbi’s side.
There are few alterations at the bottom of the table, although Everton are now tipped for the drop alongside Luton Town and Sheffield United. While Bournemouth were beaten by Tottenham at the weekend, the Toffees lost at home to a Wolverhampton Wanderers side that many expect to be involved in the relegation dogfight. Opta are more optimistic, currently projecting Wolves to finish 14th after their win at Goodison Park,
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