No longer are phrases such as “yeah, but we had more possession”, or “we had more shots on-target” used in fierce childish debates over a particular result, whether it be on the school playground, in the pub, or on the social media app of your choosing.
Use ‘possession’ or mere ‘shots’ in a debate and you’ll be laughed at in 2023. The world’s moved on. The rage now is field tilt, zones of control, and, of course, the fated expected goals.
This statistical phenomenon has entered mainstream consciousness for some time now, yet some still can’t grasp its importance. Your dad’s probably called it a “load of tosh” or words of a similar kind, but he probably bemoans the use of ‘inverted’ before ‘full-back and tells you how much better things were in his day.
While ‘xG’ is relentlessly shoved down our throats, it’s nonetheless important in gauging the sustainability of a team’s performance. Will the success last, or have they been overachieving in front of goal, depicting a potential demise further down the line?
xG raises such questions while simultaneously attempting to predict an answer.
Here’s how the 2023/24 Premier League expected goals table looks.
|
Pos |
Team |
Played |
xG |
Actual goals scored |
xGA |
xGD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Brighton |
4 |
10.22 |
12 |
8.43 |
1.79 |
|
2. |
Man City |
4 |
9.48 |
11 |
2.79 |
6.75 |
|
3. |
Brentford |
4 |
9.4 |
8 |
5.02 |
4.38 |
|
4. |
Chelsea |
4 |
9.24 |
5 |
4.63 |
4.61 |
|
5. |
Tottenham |
4 |
8.65 |
11 |
6.5 |
2.15 |
|
6. |
Man Utd |
4 |
8.41 |
5 |
7.13 |
1.28 |
|
7. |
Arsenal |
4 |
8.19 |
8 |
3.85 |
4.34 |
|
8. |
Aston Villa |
4 |
8.18 |
8 |
8.41 |
-0.23 |
|
9. |
Liverpool |
4 |
8.14 |
9 |
5.56 |
2.58 |
|
10. |
Everton |
4 |
7.95 |
2 |
7.8 |
0.15 |
|
11. |
West Ham |
4 |
7.37 |
9 |
6.52 |
0.85 |
|
12. |
Newcastle |
4 |
7.1 |
7 |
4.89 |
2.21 |
|
13. |
Wolves |
4 |
6.95 |
4 |
9.35 |
-2.4 |
|
14. |
Crystal Palace |
4 |
6.74 |
5 |
4.72 |
2.02 |
|
15. |
Bournemouth |
4 |
5.49 |
4 |
10.07 |
-4.58 |
|
16. |
Nottingham Forest |
4 |
4.45 |
6 |
6.71 |
-2.26 |
|
17. |
Luton |
4 |
4.37 |
2 |
9.01 |
-4.64 |
|
18 |
Fulham |
4 |
4.3 |
4 |
11.29 |
-6.99 |
|
19. |
Sheffield United |
4 |
3.31 |
4 |
10.23 |
-6.92 |
|
20. |
Burnley |
3 |
2.61 |
3 |
7.64 |
-5.03 |
All xG stats are provided by Understat – data correct as of 12 September 2023.
Brighton have been the Premier League’s xG darlings since Graham Potter succeeded Chris Hughton, but Roberto De Zerbi has taken the Seagulls to another level.
They’ve accumulated the highest xG in the division through four games (10.22) and are finally over-performing in front of goal. They’ve actually scored 12 times. Man City have tallied the next best xG figure (9.48) and they too have over-performed thus far.
Chelsea (-4.24), Man Utd (-3.41), and Everton (-5.95) are notable under-performers so far which would suggest that each of these teams, who have endured poor starts to the new season, will improve as the campaign progresses.
Not too many teams have wildly over-performed in front of goal, although the xG data suggests fortune and fantastic finishing have played roles in Tottenham’s quick start under Ange Postecoglou. Spurs are the biggest over-performers in front of goal so far, scoring 11 times with an xG of 8.65. Nevertheless, their xGD (expected goal difference) is still positive at 2.15 – the seventh-highest in the division.
City dominate the Premier League in terms of xGD as there’s is currently 6.75. Arsenal (4.34), Chelsea, (4.61), and Brentford (4.38) also impress in this regard. These teams are creating high-quality chances at a much greater rate than they’re giving them up.
However, there’s reason to be concerned about Bournemouth, Fulham, Sheffield United, Luton and Burnley. Their respective xGDs at this early stage are -4.58, -6.99, -6.92, -4.64, and -5.03. These four teams are surrendering high-quality chances more frequently than they’re creating them.
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