Who is the better signing for Chelsea?

It has been a busy and quite frankly ridiculous couple of days in transfer land courtesy of Todd Boehly’s bottomless pot of gold, with Chelsea adding two new faces to their squad.

Moises Caicedo has officially signed for the Blues in a £115m deal from Brighton & Hove Albion despite Liverpool’s late attempts to hijack the deal, while Southampton midfielder Romeo Lavia has also snubbed the Merseyside club in favour of a £58m move to Chelsea.

An imminent £35m deal for Crystal Palace’s Michael Olise will only add to Chelsea’s never-ending spending, with Mauricio Pochettino now knowing what his squad will look like this season after months of incomings and outgoings.

Signing two players for a combined £173m who play in the same position is a luxury only Chelsea can seemingly afford, and it is still unclear who will line up alongside £106m Enzo Fernandez.

With that in mind, let’s have a look at whether Caicedo or Lavia should be considered the better signing.

Thanks to FBref, we can easily compare how both defensive midfielders fared in the Premier League last season.

It is worth bearing in mind that Caicedo cost almost twice as much as Lavia, despite being two years older than his new Belgian teammate. While Caicedo appears to be the more well-rounded midfielder at the moment, there is not a vast gulf in quality between the pair, while Lavia also featured in a significantly worse side last campaign.

Caicedo played 37 matches to Lavia’s 29 last season, with both players ranking similarly in terms of attacking output. Caicedo managed a goal and an assist, while Lavia only managed a goal, with Caicedo having a higher shot accuracy percentage and volume of shots per 90.

In terms of passing, Caicedo once again comes out on top with an 88.5% accuracy, compared to Lavia’s 86.2%. Caicedo boasted a better long and short passing accuracy, while Lavia was superior when it came to medium passes.

However, when it comes to defensive output, Caicedo clearly has the edge over Lavia. The Ecuadorian won 64.9% of his aerial duels to Lavia’s 41.2%, had a 58.8% successful tackle percentage to Lavia’s 39.6% and lost fewer challenges than the Belgian despite playing eight more matches.

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If Pochettino is to persist with his favoured 4-2-3-1 system, then it means that one of Lavia or Caicedo is likely to be absent from the starting lineup.

Fernandez is unlikely to be pushed into a number ten role to facilitate both signings, and you would imagine that Caicedo will be the more regular starter. He has more Premier League experience than Lavia and is performing at a higher level at present, and with a lack of European football this season, it is difficult to see how Lavia will get a lot of game time this year.

Both players are likely to complement Fernandez well, however, offering the energy and defensive solidity that the Argentine somewhat lacks. Caicedo resembles someone like N’Golo Kante in terms of his skillset, which makes him the ideal partner for Fernandez and a worthy successor to the French midfielder now plying his trade in Saudi Arabia.

Pochettino could perhaps resort to a more basic 4-3-3 in bigger games, especially away from home, which may allow Lavia and Caicedo to play together. They could both play in a number six role with Fernandez pushed further forward, which would offer more structure and rigidity when facing the best attacking sides.

Given the age profile of both players – alongside Fernandez who is only 22-years-old himself – Chelsea could have their midfield sorted for the next decade. While things don’t often work out so straightforwardly in football, it remains a possibility.

Assuming Chelsea qualify for European football next season, there should be plenty of opportunities for both Caicedo and Lavia to get minutes on the pitch when taking into account rotation and increased risk of injury.

Caicedo is arguably the player with greater potential and a higher ceiling, as well as greater current ability, meaning Lavia may have to serve as his deputy. Whether the Belgian will have enough time to develop effectively remains to be seen, but it is certainly a first-world problem for Pochettino to have.

Overall, despite costing twice as much, Caicedo appears to be the better signing, and someone who can make a greater immediate impact for the Blues. The former Brighton man has the potential to develop into one of the world’s best holding midfielders, if he isn’t already.

While Lavia will undoubtedly develop into a wonderful player, Caicedo has the edge over his new teammate at the moment.

On this week’s edition of Talking Transfers, part of the 90min podcast network, Scott Saunders is joined by Toby Cudworth, Graeme Bailey and Sean Walsh to discuss the ever-changing Moises Caicedo saga, Harry Kane’s move to Bayern Munich and more!

If you can’t see this embed, click here to listen to the podcast!