Why has the January transfer window been so quiet?

Years of decadent spending seem to have left significant holes in the pockets of Premier League clubs during the 2024 January transfer window.

While football’s marketplace has often resembled chaotic scenes from the New York Stock Exchange in the past, more tumbleweeds than brokers have blown by this month. Few clubs have done significant business, leaving fans desperately short of the captivating drama that usually takes place in the football world at this time of year.

So why has no one thrown £300m at Paris Saint-Germain for Kylian Mbappe? As it turns out, there’s a little more for clubs to consider than just instantly reaching for their pockets.

The 2023 January transfer window ended up being a record-breaking one. £815m was spent by Premier League clubs, though around a third of that was forked out solely by Chelsea. The Blues parted with almost £300m as stars like Enzo Fernandez, Mykhailo Mudryk, Benoit Badiashile and Noni Madueke all commanded significant fees.

Mauricio Pochettino hasn’t welcomed any new first-teamers to Stamford Bridge this month, and no Premier League side has come close to matching the £107m Chelsea paid Benfica for Fernandez. The priciest deal so far remains the £25m Genoa extracted from Tottenham for defender Radu Dragusin, with around £50m being spent before Deadline Day in 2024.

But while some clubs are more comfortable parting with cash, others have had to walk the tightrope of the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR).

Everton were handed a ten-point sanction earlier this season after their losses up to 2021/22 were found to have amounted to £124.5m, over the £105m threshold English top-flight clubs must abide by over three years. The Toffees have since been charged again alongside Nottingham Forest, with both clubs facing the prospect of point penalties while scrapping at the bottom of the Premier League table.

Clubs around Everton and Forest look to be showing more restraint in their transfer dealings. Wolves completely scrapped their plans last summer in order to stay within the limitations and currently sit in mid-table, exceeding previous expectations under Gary O’Neil.

Some of the division’s heavyweights have refrained from entering the winter market this year.

Newcastle recently posted losses of £73.4m and have accepted they may have to sell some of their best players in the summer to ensure they don’t run the risk of a charge for breaches. That has limited Eddie Howe’s flexibility in January when the Magpies could have done with some reinforcements with so many players out injured.

There’s been clamour for Arsenal to recruit a killer of a striker but no such clear target has materialised, while Manchester United‘s window has been dominated by off-field drama including Marcus Rashford’s Belfast nightclub fiasco and Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s arrival with INEOS.

It’s not just the English clubs that have been acting so thriftily this month, however. The market around Europe is desperately quiet, with plenty of teams unable to act without the inflated Premier League cash that is so readily thrown around in summer markets.

Player price tags are high as clubs look to remain in the green, with player valuations scuppering the chances of deals around the continent. Chelsea are open to letting injury-prone striker Armando Broja leave but only for a fee in the region of £50m – Wolves and Fulham have both been monitoring the Albanian but neither club were ever going to be able to get remotely close to that valuation.

Clubs from the Saudi Pro League coughed up those sums last summer but the discourse around the Cristiano Ronaldo-led ‘revolution’ in the Middle East has changed a lot in the past few months. Jordan Henderson secured a quick exit to Ajax, while there are also reports suggesting marquee arrival Karim Benzema is unhappy at Al Ittihad.

Financial Fair Play regulations mean the window has been undeniably quieter for Premier League clubs who fear the potential consequences of financial gluttony having seen the punishment dished out to Everton. That lack of investment has sucked the money out of the market continent-wide, leading to a month of inactivity.

Managers may not feel panicked by the lack of new arrivals, however. Relegation candidates like Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton Town all have relatively settled squads with strong managers in charge, while Manchester City and Liverpool have built durable rosters capable of competing on multiple fronts until the end of 2023/24 without the need for January additions.

There is always the temptation for one team to go for that blockbuster signing while others stand still, but such brazen spending comes with a huge amount of risk.

January seems to produce more ‘panic buys’ than the summer window because of the desperation clubs can feel, but that hasn’t been the story of 2024. Instead, clubs have taken stock of the environment and, broadly speaking, decided to stick rather than twist.

With the title and relegation races still wide open, it remains to be seen who will be toasting their discipline or cursing a rush of blood to the wallet.

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