Will Lionel Messi’s record of eight Ballon d’Or trophies ever be broken?

A 22-year-old, shaggy-haired Lionel Messi was wary of what lay ahead following his first Ballon d’Or in 2009.

“It won’t be easy to [repeat] after a year like the one we just went through,” Messi fretted once he had been voted the best player on the planet by a yawning margin. “I hope the next one will reach the same standards. But to win the Ballon d’Or two years in a row is not an easy thing.”

Messi didn’t just win two in a row but he claimed a record-breaking four on the spin and notched up the eighth of his career in 2023. Messi is right in his assertion that winning back-to-back Ballons d’Or is “not an easy thing”. But is eight across a career possible for any other player?

When the shortlist of the 2022 Ballon d’Or was released, it included the likes of Dusan Vlahovic and Sebastien Haller but no Messi. On the back of an underwhelming debut season at Paris Saint-Germain, it seemed unthinkable that Messi would ever again be crowned the greatest player on earth.

Fast forward 12 months and 100 journalists had agreed on Messi as the outright winner – with 105 points separating the 36-year-old and second-place Erling Haaland.

Messi is already the second-oldest Ballon d’Or victor of all time and plays his football in MLS for Inter Miami, a league which hadn’t had a nominee for the award since David Beckham in 2007.

It may appear that Messi’s best years are behind him but this summer’s Copa America offers another opportunity for the Argentine to swing the vote with an international tournament. While unlikely, never rule anything out for Messi.

Only ten people in the 67-year history of the award have hoisted aloft the famous orb more than once. And just one player – a certain Cristiano Ronaldo (five) – has more than half of Messi’s haul.

Ronaldo is two years older than Messi and also operates outside of Europe’s elite. Al Nassr’s captain confirmed that he would not return to the continent in July. “That door is completely closed,” he declared. “I’m already 38 and a half years old and it’s not worth it. In my view, Europe has lost a lot of quality.”

From beyond the spotlight of western Europe, Ronaldo was not even included on the 2023 Ballon d’Or shortlist, breaking a record 19-year streak. The person that surpasses Messi’s tally – if they do exist – hasn’t even won one Ballon d’Or yet.

Messi cast his eye towards the future from his pedestal atop world football at the Ballon d’Or ceremony. While naming the usual suspects for future winners (see below) he also tipped his hat towards Barcelona’s prodigious youngster Lamine Yamal.

“Lamine, who is now very young and is already playing at Barcelona and being important … will play a prominent role and fight for it in the future too,” Messi predicted. At 16, time is certainly on Yamal’s side.

Given the maturity he displays off the pitch in his unrelenting fight against racism, Vinicius Junior can come across as older than he is. The 23-year-old, who is younger than Phil Foden, has finished in the top ten of the last two years of Ballon d’Or voting.

Real Madrid have produced more Ballon d’Or winners than any other club and Vinicius is set to be in the Spanish capital until 2027 after his latest deal.

Goals win games and – more often than not – individual accolades in a team sport. Few in the modern game score goals at the same frighteningly prolific rate as Erling Haaland.

As the Norwegian accurately pointed out: “People are more shocked when I don’t score than when I score.” It would be mightily surprising if Haaland ended his career without a single Ballon d’Or – although as many as eight would also be a bit of a shock.

Perhaps as a consequence of his lingering allegiance to Barcelona, Messi doesn’t appear to rate Bellingham as highly as everyone else. The Real Madrid superstar was left off of Messi’s list for this year’s Kopa Trophy winners (Jamal Musiala got the nod) and not name-checked as a potential Ballon d’Or winner in the future.

Great footballers are not always great fortune tellers – Pele never saw Nick Barmby fulfil his prediction of becoming a world star – and Bellingham’s abundant talent is clear for (almost) all to see.

Luis Enrique may be biased but PSG’s head coach hardly had a tinfoil hat on when he hailed Kylian Mbappe as “clearly the best player in the world” earlier this season.

If the Frenchman continues to produce the same startling end product – on top of quick mind and feet, Mbappe has averaged a goal every 87 minutes since the start of last season – there is every chance that future Ballon d’Or voters agree with Enrique.

90min’s rigorously scientific approach of Football Manager simulations certainly does, predicting that Mbappe will win six of the next ten Ballon d’Or trophies – taking him to within two of Messi’s record tally.

READ MORE ON THE 2023 BALLON D’OR WINNERS

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